Who is most likely to be awarded a MacArthur Fellowship?

Raymond Chen

You can count on The Annals of Improbable Research to produce groundbreaking results. One of my favorites is Who is most likely to be awarded a MacArthur Fellowship?, in which researcher (and AIR editorial board member) Eric Schulman performs a careful statistical analysis of previous winners of the MacArthur Fellowship in order to determine who is most likely to win the next one.

Schulman also correctly predicted the outcome of the 2004 U.S. presidential election using much more complicated reasoning.