Raymond’s highly scientific predictions for the 2009 NCAA men’s basketball tournament

Raymond

Once again, it’s time for Raymond to come up with an absurd, arbitrary criterion for filling out his NCAA bracket.

This year, the criterion is the school’s graduation rate for basketball players. Lower graduation rate wins. However, if the teams are seeded 11 or more positions apart, I’ll give the win to the favorite (just to get rid of highly unlikely upsets).

Update:

  • Correct predictions are in green.
  • Incorrect predictions are in red.
  • (!) marks upsets correctly predicted.
  • (*) marks upsets predicted but did not take place.
  • (x) marks actual upsets not predicted.

Opening Round Game

Alabama State (56%) Alabama State
(56%)
Morehead State (57%)

Midwest bracket

1 Louisville (42%) Louisville
(42%)
Louisville
(42%)
Louisville
(42%)
USC
(37%)
16 Alabama State (56%)
8 Ohio State (53%) Ohio State
(53%) (x)
9 Siena (86%)
5 Utah (67%) Arizona
(20%) (!)
Arizona
(20%)
12 Arizona (20%)
4 Wake Forest (100%) Cleveland State
(71%) (!)
13 Cleveland State (71%)
6 West Virginia (41%) West Virginia
(41%) (x)
West Virginia
(41%)
USC
(37%)
11 Dayton (89%)
3 Kansas (64%) Kansas
(64%)
14 North Dakota State (N/A)
7 Boston College (70%) USC
(37%) (!)
USC
(37%)
10 USC (37%)
2 Michigan State (60%) Michigan State
(60%)
15 Robert Morris (100%)

West bracket

1 Connecticut (33%) Connecticut
(33%)
Connecticut
(33%)
Connecticut
(33%)
Maryland
(10%)
16 Chattanooga (34%)
8 BYU (91%) Texas A&M
(47%) (!)
9 Texas A&M (47%)
5 Purdue (77%) Northern Iowa
(67%) (x)
Washington
(50%)
12 Northern Iowa (67%)
4 Washington (50%) Washington
(50%)
13 Mississippi State (53%)
6 Marquette (100%) Utah State*
(100%) (*)
Missouri
(36%)
Maryland
(10%)
11 Utah State (100%)
3 Missouri (36%) Missouri
(36%)
14 Cornell (N/A)
7 California (30%) Maryland
(10%) (!)
Maryland
(10%) (*)
10 Maryland (10%)
2 Memphis (55%) Memphis
(55%)
15 Cal St. Northridge (8%)

East bracket

1 Pittsburgh (69%) Pittsburgh
(69%)
Tennessee
(38%)
Portland State
(17%)
Portland State
(17%)
16 East Tennessee State (60%)
8 Oklahoma State (92%) Tennessee
(38%) (x)
9 Tennessee (38%)
5 Florida State (100%) Wisconsin
(86%) (!)
Portland State
(17%)
12 Wisconsin (86%)
4 Xavier (82%) Portland State
(17%) (*)
13 Portland State (17%)
6 UCLA (46%) UCLA
(46%)
UCLA
(46%) (*)
Texas
(31%)
11 VCU (53%)
3 Villanova (89%) Villanova
(89%)
14 American (31%)
7 Texas (31%) Texas
(31%)
Texas
(31%) (*)
10 Minnesota (36%)
2 Duke (89%) Duke
(89%)
15 Binghamton (100%)

South bracket

1 North Carolina (86%) North Carolina
(86%)
LSU
(40%) (*)
LSU
(40%)
Clemson
(29%)
16 Radford (80%)
8 LSU (40%) LSU
(40%)
9 Butler (92%)
5 Illinois (80%) Illinois
(80%) (x)
Akron
(63%)
12 Western Kentucky (100%)
4 Gonzaga (67%) Akron
(63%) (*)
13 Akron (63%)
6 Arizona State (38%) Arizona State
(38%)
Arizona State
(38%) (*)
Clemson
(29%)
11 Temple (57%)
3 Syracuse (50%) Syracuse
(50%)
14 Stephen F. Austin (42%)
7 Clemson (29%) Clemson
(29%) (x)
Clemson
(29%)
10 Michigan (46%)
2 Oklahoma (55%) Oklahoma
(55%)
15 Morgan State (45%)

Finals

USC (37%) Maryland
(10%)
Maryland
(10%)
Maryland (10%)
Clemson (29%) Portland State
(17%)
Portland State (17%)

*The Marquette/Utah State game is a draw based on graduation rates, so it went to the tie-breaker: players arrested.

Update 9am: Fixed the prediction for the game between LSU and Akron. Thanks, Adam, for pointing this out.

My source for graduation data.

Update 10am: Fixed the prediction for the game between Louisville and Arizona. Thanks, Dave O, for pointing this out.

Update 1pm: Fixed the prediction of the game between UCLA and VCU (and the subsequent matchup against Villanova). Thanks, Crawford, for pointing this out.

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